coffee prices colombia Market outlook : For the 2010/11 season, we are forecasting an 8% year-on-year increase in Colombian production to 9.3mn bags. However, the improved output from Colombia will not prevent a global deficit in 2010/11, and we maintain our bullish view over the short term. Assuming normal weather for the 2011/12 season, we forecast production to increase by 16% to 10.7mn tonnes. The improvement will increase global supply, although the market will remain in a deficit in 2011/12.
For the 2010/11 Colombian season, which began with the harvest in September 2010, we have revised down our coffee production forecast to 9.3mn bags due to poor weather. Although this marks a forecast 8.0% y-o-y improvement, the weak output (well below the last bumper harvest of 11.5mn bags in 2007/08) means that both local and global coffee stocks have remained very low by historical standards.
Consequently, prices have risen significantly since Q210, despite strong output from global leader Brazil. For the 2011/12 season, which begins with the harvest in September 2011, Colombian producers are expecting a significant rebound in production, and we are forecasting growth of 16% y-o-y in production to 10.7mn bags mainly due expectations for more normal weather conditions. However, we are still expecting the global market to remain in deficit in 2010/11 and 2011/12
For the 2010/11 Colombian season, which began with the harvest in September 2010, we have revised down our coffee production forecast to 9.3mn bags due to poor weather. Although this marks a forecast 8.0% y-o-y improvement, the weak output (well below the last bumper harvest of 11.5mn bags in 2007/08) means that both local and global coffee stocks have remained very low by historical standards.
Consequently, prices have risen significantly since Q210, despite strong output from global leader Brazil. For the 2011/12 season, which begins with the harvest in September 2011, Colombian producers are expecting a significant rebound in production, and we are forecasting growth of 16% y-o-y in production to 10.7mn bags mainly due expectations for more normal weather conditions. However, we are still expecting the global market to remain in deficit in 2010/11 and 2011/12
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